How the SpaceX IPO affects portfolio exposure

SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq today (12 June 2026) priced at $135 per share and targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion. That would make it the largest IPO in history, surpassing Saudi Aramco's $29 billion raise in 2019, and would place SpaceX immediately among the ten most valuable listed companies in the world. The company is raising up to $75 billion in the offering.

Despite the scale of the listing, only around 7% of total shares will be freely tradeable at launch. Lockups stagger over the months that follow, with the first tranches releasing after SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report, then at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days, a further 28% after Q3 earnings, and full release at 180 days. Elon Musk himself faces a 366-day restriction.

Index inclusion: a two-speed story

The most practically important question for portfolios using index or passive strategies is not whether SpaceX is a good investment – it is will you hold it, where, and when?

The answer depends entirely on which index underpins each fund, because the major providers have taken diverging approaches.

Nasdaq-100: fast entry within three weeks

Effective 1 May 2026, Nasdaq revised its methodology to allow newly-listed companies ranking among the top 40 by market capitalisation to enter the Nasdaq-100 within just 15 trading days of listing. Previously, the waiting period was around three months. SpaceX, at its $1.75 trillion valuation, comfortably meets the threshold.

FTSE Russell: fast entry of similar speed

FTSE Russell separately amended its rules to accommodate fast entry for large newly-listed companies into both the Russell U.S. Equity Indexes and the FTSE Global Equity Index Series. Russell 1000 inclusion is expected approximately five trading days after listing. This is the index underlying many global equity and US equity tracker products available on UK platforms.

MSCI: existing early-inclusion provisions apply

MSCI confirmed on 9 June that it will apply its existing rules for early inclusion of large IPOs in its Global Standard Indexes. SpaceX is expected to clear MSCI's size and free-float thresholds without difficulty.

Passively-managed funds tracking MSCI indices hold around $5.79 trillion in assets globally, meaning structural buy orders from those products will flow within weeks of listing.

CRSP (the Center for Research in Security Prices, whose indices underpin Vanguard's US equity funds) has comparable early-entry provisions and is expected to follow a similar timeline.

S&P 500: the significant exception

S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed on 4 June that it will not change its criteria, which state:

• a company must have traded publicly for twelve months before eligibility; and
• the company must be profitable under GAAP.

SpaceX fails both tests. It reported a net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, a reversal from $791 million profit in 2024, largely attributable to integrating xAI, despite revenues rising 33% to $18.67 billion.

The S&P 500 remains closed to SpaceX until at minimum mid-2027, and only then if profitability criteria are met. Analysts note that SpaceX also posted a $4.3 billion loss in Q1 2026 alone.

S&P did relax fast-entry rules for a smaller number of its products, specifically the S&P Total Market Index and Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index, but these are far less widely held than the flagship S&P 500.

What this means for portfolios

If your US equity exposure is sourced through S&P 500 trackers – which is the case for the AJ Bell funds and Passive MPS – you will not hold SpaceX at listing, nor for some considerable time thereafter. This is not an oversight or a gap; it is simply how the index is constructed, and that construction exists for sound reasons including ensuring financial viability.

If your portfolios include Nasdaq-100 trackers, FTSE Russell-based products, MSCI World or MSCI All Country funds, those products will acquire exposure within weeks of listing. The initial weighting will be measured in basis points given the constrained free float, but as lockup tranches release over the following six months, the weighting will grow – depending on how the share price performs.

Some clients may ask whether a portfolio without SpaceX is "missing out" on artificial intelligence, given the prominent role that xAI, Grok and Starlink play in the company's investment narrative.

However, AJ Bell portfolios already have significant AI participation through established routes, with layers of diversification in other markets that help navigate what is increasingly becoming a bumpy ride.

S&P 500 constituents

Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon are among the largest holdings in any S&P 500 tracker and represent the core infrastructure and applications layer of AI.

Emerging markets ex-China

Taiwan (TSMC – the world's dominant advanced chip manufacturer) and South Korea (Samsung and SK Hynix – leading memory and HBM suppliers) provide exposure to AI hardware at the foundational level. This allocation has meaningfully outperformed year to date.

Second-order AI themes

The real-world impact of AI is flowing through US Healthcare (diagnostics, drug discovery, administrative efficiency), US Utilities (data centre power demand) and US Energy (infrastructure buildout and longer-term demand for fossil fuels). These are deliberate, forward-looking allocations rather than retrospective ones.

S&P 500 portfolios: no immediate change

For the AJ Bell Funds and Passive MPS built on S&P 500 foundations, nothing changes immediately. The AI exposure story remains well-served through existing holdings.

Global and Nasdaq portfolios: exposure builds over time

For clients in broader global trackers or Nasdaq-focused products, SpaceX will appear in fund holdings reports within the coming weeks – a small weighting initially, growing as lockups expire.

S&P’s stance raises longer-term index questions

The more interesting long-term question is whether SpaceX's eventual S&P 500 inclusion – likely 2027 or beyond, conditional on profitability – will prompt a reappraisal of how AI-heavy mega cap IPOs are absorbed into the index ecosystem. S&P's decision to hold firm on its criteria was described by index methodology commentators as the last meaningful guardrail in a process where most other major providers effectively rewrote their rules to accommodate a single company's listing preferences.

Index discipline underpins our investment approach

In the end, SpaceX’s arrival on public markets is less a question of whether it deserves attention and more a test of how different index frameworks respond to companies of this scale and profile.

For AJ Bell portfolios, the key point is that exposure to the themes driving investor excitement, particularly AI, digital infrastructure and enabling technologies, is already present through diversified existing holdings. SpaceX may become part of the opportunity set in time, but its absence at launch from portfolios reflects disciplined index construction rather than a missed investment case.

Past performance is not a guide to future performance and some investments need to be held for the long term.